With Brian Lara announcing his retirement from ODIs after West Indies failed to get the result they wanted against South Africa you'd be forgiven for thinking that their competition was over, however they will finish level on points for 4th place if they win their last two matches and South Africa lose theirs. South Africa play their two games before West Indies so the hosts will have a very good idea of what they need to do in terms of run rate in their last two very winnable matches if their world cup is still alive.
It has been a mixed few days for South Africa, with this win lifting them back up after their disasterous Bangladesh defeat. Thanks to that result Bangladesh (and England) will both remain mathematically in the tournament even if they lose in their vital clash today. Bangladesh are in fact now the most likely team to deprive one of the top 4 of their semi final place. Ireland will be the first team out when they lose to Australia on Friday.
Winner
Australia 38% (+2)
New Zealand 25% (+2)
South Africa 22% (-3)
Sri Lanka 15% (+1)
England 0.28% (-0.01)
Bangladesh 0.22% (+0.21)
West Indies 0.09% (-0.64)
Ireland 0.00%
Semi Final qualification
Australia 99.99% (+1)
New Zealand 99% (+1)
Sri Lanka 97% (+1)
South Africa 88% (-3)
Bangladesh 8% (+7)
England 6%
West Indies 2% (-6)
Ireland 0.00%
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