With a great feeling of calmness, I've noticed the World Cup has just started. Thought I'd have a quick look and see who was going to emerge victorious in 7 weeks time. Turns out that the chances of each team winning are as follows:
Australia 31%
South Africa 28%
New Zealand 16%
Sri Lanka 7%
India 6%
Pakistan 5%
West Indies 5%
England 1%
Bangladesh 0.0002%
Others 0%
So that's bad news for any of us holding on to the hope that England "are the dark horses", "have the potential to beat anyone on their day" and "will bash those filthy foreigners"
However good news for anyone who has backed South Africa or New Zealand or indeed layed England
And chances of qualification for the Exciting Eight stage are ...
Australia 100%
South Africa 100%
Scotland 0.27%
Netherlands 0.15%
Sri Lanka 92%
India 91%
Bangladesh 17%
Bermuda 0.03%
New Zealand 99%
England 98%
Kenya 2%
Canada 0.10%
West Indies 97%
Pakistan 97%
Zimbabwe 5%
Ireland 0.06%
But you probably guessed all that anyway.
Note: results based on rounded percentages from 20000 simulations of the tournament using a linear simplification of fractional chances of victory based on all ODI results since Jan 2006 equally weighted ignoring home advantage both in the calibration matches and the world cup proper, breaking ties in group qualification using drawing of lots, ignoring team selecion and removing the possibility of ties, no results and acts of God or Mugabe.
3 comments:
Wow - what fun!
Will it get updated?
Certainly will, I shall keep the computer working on it.
Not a lot of value around, but I've layed Ireland to Qualify at 1000/1 to make a few hundred. Will have to sell my house if they do ! Should be fine- 0.06% chance makes them 1 in 1666.
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