World Cupdate

The Big 8 stage has started with 3 games between the top 5 teams, with wins for the big 3 teams giving them one foot in the semis. West Indies seem to be drifting out at the moment and the games between West Indies, England and Sri Lanka seem to be the biggest ones to come later in this round. Assuming England don't lose to Ireland today.

Winner
Australia 38% (+1)
South Africa 26% (+5)
New Zealand 24% (+2)
Sri Lanka 9% (-3)
West Indies 2% (-4)
England 1%
Bangladesh 0.08%
Ireland 0.00%

Semi Final qualification
Australia 98% (+3)
New Zealand 95% (+10)
South Africa 90% (+15)
Sri Lanka 64% (-8)
West Indies 28% (-23)
England 19% (+2)
Bangladesh 5%
Ireland 0%

Aussies storming ahead

Australia's win over South Africa opens up the gap between Australia and the rest of the world as they take the points through to the Ultra Eight stage and stretch their lead in my rankings.

Australia 37% (+5%)
New Zealand 22%
South Africa 21% (-6%)
Sri Lanka 13% (+1%)
West Indies 6%
England 1%
Bangladesh 0.10% (-0.03%)
Ireland 0.00%

Meanwhile chances of reaching the semi-final stage are as follows:
Australia 95%
New Zealand 85%
South Africa 75%
Sri Lanka 72%
West Indies 51%
England 17%
Bangladesh 5%
Ireland 0.00%
South Africa are the only team looking in a good position to overtake the 4 teams who carry forward points from their groups to the next stage.
The statistical approach appears to be a bit harsh on Ireland.

India checking out early

India's second loss of the World Cup tournament virtually puts them out, barring a shock win for Bermuda over Bangladesh which I make roughly a 1 in 100 chance. Sri Lanka are the main beneficiary since the last update. India are currently 85-90 on Betfair, so anyone with a house that they are willing to risk could do worse than bet against them becoming world champions.

Australia 32% (-1%)
South Africa 27% (-1%)
New Zealand 22% (+1%)
Sri Lanka 12% (+4%)
West Indies 6% (-1%)
England 1%
Bangladesh 0.14% (-1%)
India 0.05% (-2%)
Others 0%

These may well change again after the conclusion of today's games featuring England and Australia.

Post-Modern Condition Syndrome Invention Disorder

I noticed on the radio the other day they were discussing "Post-Traumatic Slavery Syndrome".
Apparently if you don't qualify for ME, Gulf War Syndrome, ADHD, SAD etc., then it might be worth checking your family or cultural history to see if this could be your modern condition of choice. "Effects" last for over 200 years and can be inherited and can be applied to the enslavers as well as the enslaved.

Irish Heroics on St Patrick's Day

An incredible day yesterday in the World Cup as Pakistan capitulated to Ireland to be the first team out of the tournament. Add to this Bangladesh's great performance in beating India and there was quite a recalculation of winning chances to do.
New Zealand's chances have increased considerably especially after they confirmed their superiority over England on Friday and Bangladesh now have a realistic (if slim) chance of going all the way, now being almost as likely as England to be world champions.
Meanwhile, despite the wonderful result Ireland's chances of victory remain non-existent with not one win in todays 20000 simulations, but I bet they enjoyed their Guiness yesterday.

Australia 33% (+3)
South Africa 28%
New Zealand 21% (+5)
Sri Lanka 8% (+1)
West Indies 7%
India 2% (-5)
England 1%
Bangladesh 1% (+1)
Pakistan 0% (-3)
Others 0%

Wah ... What?

If you have been fascinated by the juxtaposition of cricket and stats in my World Cup simulations then I can recommend the blog of Statmeister Wah where you can follow his quest to find the top player in the World Cup.
If not then avoid it as it is an obsessive plod into a numerical black hole.

You pays your money, you takes your choice.
(Only it's free of course)

World Cup update

After the positive response to the previous post, I shall update when there is a significant change in the win %s

The first match was possibly the biggest game of the first round between two teams with a real need to take forward a win into the Excellent Eight round, so it is a valuable victory for West Indies over Pakistan:

Australia 30%(-1)
South Africa 28%
New Zealand 16%
Sri Lanka 7%
West Indies 7%(+2)
India 7%(+1)
Pakistan 3%(-2)
England 1%
Bangladesh 0.005% (corrected from previous post!!!)
Others 0%

Group D qualification
West Indies 99%(+2)
Pakistan 95%(-2)
Zimbabwe 6%(+1)
Ireland 0.07%(+0.01)

Tall order now for a fairly poor Pakistan team to reach the semis.

Forget that soccerball rubbish ...

With a great feeling of calmness, I've noticed the World Cup has just started. Thought I'd have a quick look and see who was going to emerge victorious in 7 weeks time. Turns out that the chances of each team winning are as follows:

Australia 31%
South Africa 28%
New Zealand 16%
Sri Lanka 7%
India 6%
Pakistan 5%
West Indies 5%
England 1%

Bangladesh 0.0002%

Others 0%

So that's bad news for any of us holding on to the hope that England "are the dark horses", "have the potential to beat anyone on their day" and "will bash those filthy foreigners"

However good news for anyone who has backed South Africa or New Zealand or indeed layed England

And chances of qualification for the Exciting Eight stage are ...

Australia 100%
South Africa 100%
Scotland 0.27%
Netherlands 0.15%

Sri Lanka 92%
India 91%
Bangladesh 17%
Bermuda 0.03%

New Zealand 99%
England 98%
Kenya 2%
Canada 0.10%

West Indies 97%
Pakistan 97%
Zimbabwe 5%
Ireland 0.06%

But you probably guessed all that anyway.

Note: results based on rounded percentages from 20000 simulations of the tournament using a linear simplification of fractional chances of victory based on all ODI results since Jan 2006 equally weighted ignoring home advantage both in the calibration matches and the world cup proper, breaking ties in group qualification using drawing of lots, ignoring team selecion and removing the possibility of ties, no results and acts of God or Mugabe.

Quiz (ii) - Kitchens

How many people does it take to install a Moben kitchen? Only counting people actually visiting our flat, not any of the people I have spoken to on the telephone or in the shop.
Please post your guess here. I am still counting (grrr), so quiz remains open until it is all completely installed and working.